CMI Pack June 2024

UK economic outlook, show improved prospects from 2025 onwards

2022

2023

Latest

2024F

2025F

2026F

GDP

4.3% 0.1% 0.2% (Jan)

0.4% 1.2% 1.7%

4.8% 0.3% -0.1% (Q4)

0.5% 1.6% 1.7%

Private Consumption

Unemployment rate (Q4)

3.7% 4.3%

3.9% (Jan)

4.3% 4.3% 4.3%

CPI (Q4)

9.1% 4.2%

3.4% (Fab)

2.1% 2.1% 2.0%

House prices (Q4)

10.2% -1.4%

-0.6% (Jan)

-1.0% 1.8% 1.0%

Average earnings (Q4)

5.9% 6.6%

5.6% (Jan)

4.0% 3.0% 3.2%

5.25% (Mar)

Base rate

1.5% 5.3%

4.4% 3.5% 3.3%

• Lowering inflation and interest rate will support stronger GDP growth. Household consumption also set to grow leading to more disposable income • UK general election to be held on 4th July 2024 and likely to result in a change of Government.

• However, wider geopolitical and supply chain issues continues- including the Red Sea disrupting shipping routes between Asia and Europe. As a result, price of shipping has increased due to rising commodity prices and conflict.

4